An indication with the company’s logo sits outside the headquarters of Elli Lily in Indiana, Indiana on March 17, 2024.
Scott Olson | Getty images
Ellie lilyStock is going well even after drug maker Released test data It was closely seen earlier this month Obesity Overwhelmed Wall Street.
In a major late-stage trial, Elli Lily tablet, Orflipron caused low weight loss and had more side effects than analysts. The pill efficacy also appeared to come down slightly Novo nordiskOral semglutide for obesity, which showed strong data in a separate study.
Elli Lily’s shares fell nearly 13% on the day when the test results were released, although they are about 12% above then.
But some analysts say that the daily pill of Ellie Lily, if approved, may still be a viable competitive in weight loss drug space – even if it will be second to enter the market. It is a highly attractive region that is eager for more convenient options that can reduce supply deficiency and currently dominate it to reach obstacles created by weekly injections.
Analysts note that Ellie Lily’s bullet may have some advantages on the daily oral version of Novo Nordisk’s Weight Loss Drug Semglutide, which is on track to become First needle-free option For obesity to win approval in the US later this year. Ellie lily expects Launch your tablet Globally “this time next year,” CEO David Ricks told CNBC in early August.
Both drugs work by mimicking an intestine hormone called GLP-1 to press the appetite and regulate blood sugar. But while the Novo Nordisk pellet is a peptide drug, Orforglipron is a small drug.
This means that Elli Lily tablet is absorbed more easily in the body and does not require dietary restrictions like Novo Nordisk. Orforglipron will also be easy to build on scale, which is important as the demand for obesity and diabetes injection outpases.
Neither the company has released prices for its respective pills, but some analysts said that Eli Lily’s drug could potentially be lower than Novo Nordisk’s tablet. This will be a notable edge, as many health plans in the US still do not cover the treatment of obesity.
“This is a bit compared to an apple and orange because Novo Nordisk may have difficulty in making the product enough, which is looking at high costs and requirements for the manufacture of oral semaglutide,” said David Rebide Risinger of Lerink Partners, David Risinger said in an interview.
“While Lily plans to blank the world with Orforglipron, and very quickly it will generate more dramatic sales,” they continued. “It can launch globally in an extraordinary way with low prices and does not consume food.”
Goldman Sachs analysts started agreeing on a note in August. They estimate daily oral pills, will capture 24% shares of the 2030 global weight loss drug market – or approximately $ 22 billion – expected to be priced at $ 95 billion.
Goldman analysts stated that they expect a 60% share of the market’s daily oral segment in 2030 – or approximately $ 13.6 billion – Ellie Lily is expected to be a pill. They expect Novo Nordisk’s 21% of the oral semglutide of Nordisk – or about $ 4 billion – of that segment. Analysts said the remaining 19% piece would go to other emerging pills.
The race to develop a more convenient obesity pill has become frightening as companies such as companies Fizer Had to do scrap Previous contenders and new people bring forward. Novo Nordisk and Eli Lily are also discovering other experimental oral drugs, as well as a slate of other companies Viking theraputics, Structure medical science, Astrazheneka And Rush,
In a statement, Novo Nordisk CEO Mike Dauster said “we strongly believe in the efficacy of oral medicine”. The Danish company said that it will be laser-focused when patients get this product without lack of supply in America ”
Among Johns Hopkins Community Physicians, Director of Endocrine Hospitals, Dr. Mihle “Misha” Zillabermint said that it is difficult to crown a winner between Eli Lily and Novo Nordisk how their related pills will be and what insurance will cover them.
“I think both drugs are going to be games,” he said. “When it comes which company is going to win the game – cost is the biggest issue.”
Weight loss, side effects comparison
It is difficult to directly compare the results of separate clinical trials, especially investors wait for Eli Lily and Novo Nordisk to release full data from their stage three studies.
Elli Lily received -1 test also followed 3,000 patients, while Oasis 4 studies of Novo Nordisk assessed Very small group Novo Nordisk spokesperson said about 300. There is currently no study directly compared to two drugs.
Ivan Segerman, an analyst of BMO Capital Markets, said Novo Nordisk’s oral semaglutide causes a higher level weight loss than Elli Lily’s tablet based on the available data.
In testing, the highest dose of Ellie Lily tablet helped patients lose an average of 12.4% in 12.4% 72 weeks of their body weight. The bullet weight loss was 11.2% when analyzing all patients.
Wall Street had expected that Ellie Lily pellet would generate about 15%weight loss, the same level as the blockbuster weight los injection vegovi of Novo Nordisk. Semaglutide is an active ingredient in the vegovi and its diabetes equivalent ozapics.
The Novo Nordisk flags flowing outside their office in Bagverad on 14 July 2025, on the outskirts of Denmark.
Tom Little | Roots
Meanwhile, the 25-Miligram dose of Novo Nordisk’s oral semaglutide helped lose up to 16.6% of its weight in 64 weeks in 64 weeks according to the results of the test presented at a medical conference in 2024. This was 13.6% for weight loss when the company shut down the drug that they turn off the drug.
A spokesperson of the Novo Nordisk said that the test had seen a 20% weight loss time in about a third of patients.
Nevertheless, a slightly less efficacy of Eli lily pellet may not be sufficient to prevent patients from taking it.
“For many patients, 12% are actually a large number of numbers,” said Segaraman. “There is definitely a market for” orforglipron.
In a note earlier this month, analysts from Bank of America shared a similar sense.
“Yes, the weight loss fell slightly less, but ask 100 priscRibers if this new data will really make a difference of who they would put on the orflipron, and our faith is the vast majority,” In fact, “not,” he wrote, referring to Elly Lily’s test data.
Some investors expressed concern about the side effects and dissection rates in the testing of Elli Lily’s pill. But Segerman said that the tolerance of the drug – how well the patients are tolerated – it seems relatively relatively to Novo Nordisk’s oral semglutide.
About 10.3% of the patients who took the highest dose of Ellie Lily tablet – 36 mg – stopped treatment due to side effects, compared to about 2.6% of those taking a placebo.
Those side effects were primarily gastrointestinal, such as nausea and vomiting, and mild to moderate in severity. One of the highest doses of Ellie Lily Pills reported an estimated 24% vomiting, while 33.7% was nausea.
Lerink’s Rechin said that he is looking to see how consecutive gastrointestinal issues are when Ellie Lily presents full data.
Side effects on the testing on the Novo Nordisk pill were mostly gastrointestinal-related: 30.9% who used to take oral semaglutide, reported vomiting and 46.6% reported nausea, according to the results of the test.
Zelbermint of Johns Hopkins said that it is difficult for him to decide who has a better security and tolerance profile based on available data.
Meanwhile, Segarman pointed to a separate factor “it will also matter a lot”: Dietary requirements.
Food requirements, manufacturing, value
Unlike Eli Lily’s pill, patients need to take the oral semglutide of Novo Nordisk in the morning in an empty stomach, with no more than four ounces of plain water. They are instructed to wait 30 minutes before eating, drinking or other oral drugs.
Sagarman said that there may be a barrier for some patients.
For example, “If you are parents with children and you have to take this medicine and wait for half an hour before drinking your coffee, you are going crazy yourself, especially if you have to take it every day,” he said. “I try to think about the real world use of these drugs in such a market. It matters.”
Lerink’s Risinger stated that oral semaglutide would also “extremely expensive for construction” because it is a peptide drug, and “possibly higher than orflipgron.”
A spokesman for the Novo Nordisk said that the bullet would be made mostly in the US, and the company is potentially excited, the bullet “offers millions of Americans living with obesity.”
“Currently, all specific launch readiness activities [for the pill] Fully running and building speed, “the spokesperson said that in the last decade, the company has invested $ 24 billion to the US to expand manufacturing capacity and fuel research and development. It includes investment aimed at building capacity for the final stages of production for active pharmaceutical materials and final stages of production for current and future products.
Small molecules are chemically simple and are easy to produce on a scale, usually ready to companies. But it is still not clear how Ellie Lily gives the price of orflipron.
During an earning call in August, Elli Lily’s Ricks stated that the pricing will be based on bringing the price orforglipron, which can address health care and comorbidities.
In the note earlier this month, Goldman Sachs analysts stated that they hopes that the tablet would be “priced in equality” for Ellie Lily’s Tirzeptide, the company’s obesity injection japebounds and diabetes equivalent active components in the equivalent Maunzaro, which is in a list of more than $ 1,000 for a month’s supply.
Johns Hopkins Zelbermint said, “They should be cheaper than injections because they are easy to produce. But that does not mean they will be cheap.” “We don’t know now – for example, we don’t know how much in research and development went.”
Seigerman said that commercialization strategies will also be important when bullets compete in the market.
He questioned whether Novo Nordisk would recently bow to this deal CVSPharmacy Benefits Manager, CairmarkUnder the deal, Caremark began to prioritize the Vagovi of Novo Nordisk on its standard formulaies on 1 July, injecting the weekly injection injectioned GLP -1 drug for obesity on Jeepbounds.
But it is unclear whether oral semaglutide can achieve a similar preferable condition.
Seigerman also questioned whether Ellie Lily would offer Orforglipron through her direct-to-consumer pharmacy, LilidirectThis offer bypasses the insurers and pharmacy benefits managers, allowing patients to buy some other drugs of Zeepbounds and Eli Lily from the company.
Segarman said he hoped that “a lot of nuances in the Go-to-Market campaign for these drugs,” adding “is going to talk.”
Other contestants back back
Other obesity pills are in the first stages of development, making them difficult to compare drugs with Elli Lily and Novo Nordisk without straight and large tests.
But till now, some experts feel that they stir compared.
For example, viking theraputics on Tuesday Mid-stage trial data released which disappointed Investors are sending their stocks down as 40%.
Jred Holz, Mizuho Health Care Equity Strategist, said in an email on Tuesday that the results of the drug of Viking “seem to be” inferior “for Ellie Lily’s pill” on almost all matrix “.
A daily pill of the viking helped patients lose up to 12.2% of their weight in about three months, which had no plateau, meaning that patients can lose even more in a long -term study.
Holz pointed to the high rate of patients who shut down the drug of Viking for more than 13 weeks, which was about 28%. Meanwhile, about a quarter of the people closed the Elli Lily Pill, offerglipron for over 72 weeks.
This is “very long test and so [Lilly] Holz said, “It seems better head-to-head.
