On 6 June 2022, Autovormers at Smirna Vehicle Assembly Plant in Nissan in Tennessee. The plant employs thousands of people and produces various types of vehicles including Leaf EV and wicked crossover.
Michael Welland / CNBC
Detroit – as Chairman Donald Trump‘S 25% tariff on imported vehicles Stay effective despite a pullback this week on other country-based levies, analysts expect a large-scale global implication for the motor vehicle industry due to policies.
They are expecting to see a decline in vehicle sales in millions, High new and used vehicle pricesAccording to research reports by Wall Street and Automotive analysts, the cost of more than $ 100 billion for the industry has increased.
Boston Consulting Group Automotive and Mobility’s global lead, Felix Stelmaszek said, “Now what we are seeing is a structural change, which is operated by policy, it is likely to last long.” “This can be the most resulting year for the auto industry in history – not only due to immediate cost pressures, but because it is forcing a fundamental change in how and where it manufactures the industry.”
The BCG hopes that the cost in the industry is expected to connect from $ 110 billion to $ 160 billion to $ 160 billion on the cost of cost in the industry, which can affect 20% of the US New-vehicle market revenue to increase production costs for both US and non-American manufacturers.
The Automotive Research Center for Michigan-based non-profit think tank believes that the cost for vehicle manufacturers in the US alone will increase by $ 107.7 billion. Which includes $ 41.9 billion for Detroit Automkers General Motors, Ford Motor And Chrysler Parents Descendant,
Both analysis took 25% tariff on imported vehicles implemented by Trump on 3 April and at the same time the upcoming levy Equal amount on motor vehicle parts Those who are ready to start by 3 May.
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According to analysts, the automakers and suppliers may be able to tolerate some cost growth, but are also expected to pass with American consumers, which may be in low sales.
Goldman Sachs Analyst Mark Deleni said in Thursday’s investor note, “We believe that the proposed tariff will increase the cost of both imports and manufacturing vehicles in the US for a minimum mid -single digit thousand dollars levels in the US, and we believe that it will be difficult for the auto industry to pass it completely, especially with more softening the consumer’s demand,”
Goldman Sachs believes that new vehicles in the US will increase from $ $ 2,000 to $ 4,000 from the next six to 12 months time limit to reflect the tariff cost better.
Are automakers Tariff replied In many ways. The manufacturers who are mostly domestic, such as Ford and Salentis, have announced temporary deals for employee pricing, while others, such as British car manufacturers Jaguar Land Rover, have stopped the shipment. Hyundai Motor It is also said that this consumer will not increase prices for at least two months to reduce concerns.
Consumer spirit became worse than anticipated in April as the expected inflation level reached the highest level since 1981, seen close to Michigan University. The survey shown on Friday.
Sam Abelsmid, Vice President of Insights Automatic advisory firm telemetryIt is expected that many vehicle manufacturers have a supply of at least two months of non-tariff affected vehicles, which will be able to sell the prices before the need to increase prices.
Telemetry hopes that high costs for production, parts and other factors resulting in selling 2 million less vehicles annually in the US and Canada, which will have a wave impact on the comprehensive economy.
“A few million-un-units decreased in sales will have a financially widespread impact,” Abulemid said. “It is inspired by high prices, not only for vehicles, but in the entire board … which is going to limit people’s spending power.”
The power of new and used vehicles is a problem for many years. On average, Cox automotive reports new vehicles About $ 50,000 cost. The figure does not include the cost of financing such a vehicle, which has increased considerably in an attempt to deal with inflation in recent years.
According to Cox, there are more than 9.64% levels of more than 9.64% for a new vehicle and up to 15% auto loan rates for a used car or truck.
Jonathan Smoke, the chief economist of the COX Automotive, said, “We expect to see a decline in exemption and then an increase in quick value as it is passed through tariffs and tightens, leading to price increase on all types of new vehicles.” Virtual event Monday. “In the long term, we expect production and sales fall, to increase newly used prices, and to end some models.”
The expected price varies depending on the vehicle, but Cax has estimated an increase of $ 6,000 in the cost of imported vehicles due to 25% tariffs on non-US assembled vehicles, as well as an increase of $ 3,600 to vehicles assembled in the US due to the upcoming 25% tariff on automotive parts. As a result of the already declared tariffs on steel and aluminum, they are in addition to an increase of $ 300 to $ 500.
